MEXICO- Though several public figures such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawkings have warned of the dangers it poses, it also true that it may bring great benefits, but in order to make the right decision or at least an informed decision, there is much we still need to know about artificial intelligence.
To begin with, there is a lot of confusion regarding the term. In its core, AI means the creation or the pursuit of a human-like intelligence by synthetic means. This definition goes back to the beginning of the digital age and more than a hard description of what we now use as artificial intelligence it offers a final objective for the development of this technology. In practical terms, AI is a machine or a system of interconnected machines that have the capacity to learn, plan, and solve problems of increasing complexity. If we use this concept then we can recognize several artificial bits of intelligence of varying degrees of sophistication being used by billions of people all over the world. Massive companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have dedicated millions of dollars on the research and development of artificial intelligence for a huge variety of uses. According to the World Economic Forum, companies specializing in AI have become one of the most attractive targets for investors, raising a total of 2.39 billion dollars in 2015 alone, with that figure expecting to rise significantly in the next few years.
It has now become obvious that Artificial Intelligence is a disruptive technology, it has the potential to change the way we communicate, move, work and live. It may very well be the answer to many challenges that face modern civilization, or at least a way to make our efforts in tackling them more efficient. But it also brings with itself new challenges, the automation of labor that would come with ever improved AI systems forces us to think about important new issues, like the future of the human workforce and the structure of a modern society in which labor and productivity play a much different role. It also puts a spotlight on human rights and its vulnerabilities in the digital age.
Even with the significant advances and investments in artificial intelligence as a whole and automation, in particular, there are still some ways to go before all labor can be efficiently performed by machines. There continue to be several professions that cannot be as yet assimilated by the existing technologies. This is not to say that most economies haven’t felt the impact of automation in different ways and sometimes the sci-fi sounding nature of artificial intelligence doesn't let us correctly assess the consequences of this disruptive technology on our day to day lives. Ever since the industrial revolution, workforce productivity has been in an almost constant increase, the focus on urban industries and the more efficient farming equipment caused a drop in agricultural employment. This labor shift covers almost all countries, no matter if they are developed or developing economies.
According to a Brookings Institution report, around 25% of all jobs in the US are 4 at high risk of being automated. Most of these jobs tend to be related to repetitive manual labor, transportation and simple service industry jobs, like waitering, but as technology continues to advance, more complex jobs and occupations that require higher education are also potential targets of automation. The same report mentions that around 23% of lawyers and 25% of software developers, two professions that are not normally associated with automation due to the high level of expertise it demands, are in danger of losing their jobs. These numbers vary significantly with each country, but it is important to note that developing countries are especially at risk of job loss by automation, given the nature of their industries, such as resource extraction and manufacturing.
Although these figures can paint quite a grim picture of the future of the human workforce and the modern economic system, it is of the utmost importance to understand that automation is not going to go away. It is simply not a question of if, but when and how we will deal with the transformation of what it means to produce. For us to effectively grapple with this notion it is key to take into consideration the political aspect of this challenge, in contrast to the technical and business side of the issue. Regulating technological advancement and adoption is a complicated task, and it is full of controversies, but requires that the lawmakers and stakeholders make integral plans that seek not only to limit the negative impact of disruptive technologies but also create a coherent road map towards sustainable innovation.
While governments like those in the USA , the UK and Mexico have spent 5 6 7 valuable resources in gathering data about the social and economic impact of automation in the workforce, there is a general consensus that there is not yet enough information to correctly guide decision making in these areas. There is significant evidence that not all job losses in certain industries lead directly to unemployment, since the same processes that automate some professions and put them out of the job market can create other, sometimes even better paying or safer opportunities for unemployed individuals. Nonetheless, because of their limited scope and funding, those studies fail to accurately predict which investments in technology will produce more jobs than they will eliminate.
An interesting proposal regarding the political and regulatory approach to artificial intelligence was presented by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers in the United States. The proposal is based on setting human rights as the guideline of technological innovation more so than development, productivity or economic gain. As such, corporate decisions on the use of new disruptive technologies would be judged on the basis of its impact on the basic universal rights of its workers, clients and other affected subjects. This proposal does not come from nowhere and is in fact perfectly in line with several UN and other international organization’s statements on the matter. However, for this to have any measurable impact it must be correctly applied on every level, international, national and local and the plans must include the input of all stakeholders, including extensive coordination with regulated industries and corporations.
As mentioned before, automation looks more and more like something inevitable, no matter the controls set on certain corporations, others will find ways to increase their efficiency and productivity through technological means. It is therefore apparent that rather than fight against the eventual shrinking of the labor market, governments and companies should focus on ensuring that everyone can meet their basic needs, regardless of whether their current skill is made obsolete by automation. There have been many proposals to meet this rising need, one of the most famous ones being the creation of a universal basic income (UBI) or the establishment of retraining programs.
The idea behind the UBI is that, because of the continuously increasing productivity of the modern economies, countries can afford to redistribute some of the wealth by means of a wealth tax and translate it into a monthly payment to every adult citizen of a country. This proposal rests on the idea that if an individual has some economic security guaranteed in the form of a constant stream of income, then she or he can afford to take more risks in order to grow, investing in new businesses or maybe in an education that lets him or her acquire valuable new skills that had before seemed unreachable. Several countries or regions, such as Finland, Alaska and some Indian provinces have implemented different variations of a UBI with varying degrees of success and notably, presidential candidates like Andrew Yang in the United States and Ricardo Anaya in Mexico presented UBI as one of their flagship proposals to combat the disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence and automation.
The other proposal, that of retraining programs, is considered a more moderate solution but should not be dismissed. It consists of taking people that have been displaced from their jobs for multiple reasons and that find their particular set of skills insufficient to get another job and training them to be hireable in other areas of expertise, sometimes with the help of funding by the state. However, retraining programs in several countries have had less than stellar results. In several cases, the courses offered were just not attractive enough for most individuals to invest an important part of their lives and potentially thousands of dollars to try and get a new job. In other cases, once someone had finished their new education, they would find that the new area they were specializing in was quickly becoming obsolete as well. This is why some proponents of retraining programs, such as 2016 democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, don’t see them as a one-off solution, but instead as one piece of a complex package of measures.
There is no one solution to the challenges presented by our accelerated technological advancement, however, it is important to keep in mind that as a society those advancements serve as a benefit to the totality of society and not just a small fraction of the population. It should also be clear that there is an urgent need for these types of subjects to become public knowledge and an integral part of our day to day political and social discourse.
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Santiago Molina Torres Arpi, 23, is currently studying International Relations at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. He is a research assistant at the Observatory of the US-Mexico Binational Relationship. His areas of interest include public policies for economic development, innovation and new technologies, problems and promises of automation, and internet governance. In addition, he has written a wide variety of articles about the US electoral policy.
Contact: santiago@losmolina.org
Contact: santiago@losmolina.org
